Il 60% del prezzo del petrolio è pura speculazione

In un interessante articolo dei primi di maggio William Engdahl spiega come il prezzo del greggio non è dettato dalla tradizionale regola della domanda e dell'offerta. Al contrario sono gli intricati mercati finanziari a dettarne le fluttuazioni e il suo crescente costo: il 60% del prezzo totale è pura speculazione, portata avanti dalle grandi banche commerciali e dai fondi hedge. Il crescente costo della materia prima ha quindi poco a che fare con il picco del petrolio [*1]. Al contrario il facile acesso al credito dovuto alla crescente massa di denaro circolante è uno dei principali fattori che spingono verso queste speculazioni. In una realtà monetaria caratterizzata dal monopolio pubblico su monete di carta a corso forzoso, le Banche Centrali immettono liquidità sotto forma di prestiti al sistema bancario, a cui ovviamente accederanno per primi i grandi speculatori e i gruppi finanziari, che sono i più propensi, per via degli stretti legami con il mondo della finanza, a portare avanti queste speculazioni. La fiat money, causa dell'inflazione, oltre a redistribuire ricchezza a favore di coloro che nella corsa arrivano primi (e a spese di quelli più lenti, che sono i ceti più bassi, i cosiddetti "gruppi a reddito fisso"), spinge anche verso questo genere di investimenti improduttivi che distorcono ulteriormente il mercato, gonfiando i prezzi e rendendo impossibile qualsiasi operazione di calcolo economico, il perno di ogni economia. Come può essere possibile verificare se l'offerta di petrolio è insufficiente quando la domanda è influenzata da una lunga serie di fattori artificiali fra cui le tasse e le speculazioni [*2]?

[*oil geopolitics] But how today’s oil prices are really determined is done by a process so opaque only a handful of major oil trading banks such as Goldman Sachs or Morgan Stanley have any idea who is buying and who selling oil futures or derivative contracts that set physical oil prices in this strange new world of "paper oil".With the development of unregulated international derivatives trading in oil futures over the past decade or more, the way has opened for the present speculative bubble in oil prices. [...] A June 2006 US Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations report on “The Role of Market Speculation in rising oil and gas prices,” noted, “…there is substantial evidence supporting the conclusion that the large amount of speculation in the current market has significantly increased prices.” [...]

…in January 2006, ICE Futures in London began trading a futures contract for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, a type of crude oil that is produced and delivered in the United States. ICE Futures also notified the CFTC that it would be permitting traders in the United States to use ICE terminals in the United States to trade its new WTI contract on the ICE Futures London exchange. ICE Futures as well allowed traders in the United States to trade US gasoline and heating oil futures on the ICE Futures exchange in London. Despite the use by US traders of trading terminals within the United States to trade US oil, gasoline, and heating oil futures contracts, the CFTC has until today refused to assert any jurisdiction over the trading of these contracts. Persons within the United States seeking to trade key US energy commodities – US crude oil, gasoline, and heating oil futures – are able to avoid all US market oversight or reporting requirements by routing their trades through the ICE Futures exchange in London instead of the NYMEX in New York. Is that not elegant? The US Government energy futures regulator, CFTC opened the way to the present unregulated and highly opaque oil futures speculation. It may just be coincidence that the present CEO of NYMEX, James Newsome, who also sits on the Dubai Exchange, is a former chairman of the US CFTC. In Washington doors revolve quite smoothly between private and public posts. [...] In January 2006 when the CFTC allowed the ICE Futures the gaping exception, oil prices were trading in the range of $59-60 a barrel. Today some two years later we see prices tapping $120 and trend upwards. This is not an OPEC problem, it is a US Government regulatory problem of malign neglect. [...] Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley today are the two leading energy trading firms in the United States. Citigroup and JP Morgan Chase are major players and fund numerous hedge funds as well who speculate. In June 2006, oil traded in futures markets at some $60 a barrel and the Senate investigation estimated that some $25 of that was due to pure financial speculation. One analyst estimated in August 2005 that US oil inventory levels suggested WTI crude prices should be around $25 a barrel, and not $60. That would mean today that at least $50 to $60 or more of today’s $115 a barrel price is due to pure hedge fund and financial institution speculation. However, given the unchanged equilibrium in global oil supply and demand over recent months amid the explosive rise in oil futures prices traded on Nymex and ICE exchanges in New York and London it is more likely that as much as 60% of the today oil price is pure speculation. No one knows officially except the tiny handful of energy trading banks in New York and London and they certainly aren’t talking.

By purchasing large numbers of futures contracts, and thereby pushing up futures prices to even higher levels than current prices, speculators have provided a financial incentive for oil companies to buy even more oil and place it in storage. A refiner will purchase extra oil today, even if it costs $115 per barrel, if the futures price is even higher. As a result, over the past two years crude oil inventories have been steadily growing, resulting in US crude oil inventories that are now higher than at any time in the previous eight years. The large influx of speculative investment into oil futures has led to a situation where we have both high supplies of crude oil and high crude oil prices.